Once we get a better grasp on how diffusion theory and market segmentation research can aide the marketing of innovations, we can take our information even further to predict which technologies are most likely to gain mainstream popularity. In order to do this, we simply need to take a look at what technologies, in this case online technologies, have already been adopted by the Early Adopters.
Hitwise data shows that two of the Early Adopter segments, Bohemian Mix and Young Digerati are more likely than the average Internet user to use Orkut, Google’s social network. All three Early Adopter groups are trying out online video sites other than YouTube, like Veoh and Wikimedia Commons. According to Click, “this group is particularly interested in trying webcam-based social network services such as Stickam.com and Webcamnow.com. Finally, we also know that this group is on the forefront of the integration of interactive entertainment and the Internet, visiting sites like Yahoo!’s Bix service, which combine social networking and consumer-generated videos with online talent contests.”
While prediction from data analysis is an imprecise science, the overrepresentation of Early Adopters for these Web sites shows that they are more likely than other Web 2.0 sites to achieve mainstream adoption.
Answers to the questions surrounding what makes an innovation spread have always been hazy. But by examining Internet usage data and market segments, we can get a glimpse into what makes an innovation take the leap from obscurity to popularity.
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